In economics, a frequent disclaimer used in forecasting is “ceteris paribus” or “with everything else the same.” It means that the forecast is based on the assumption that there are no changes in any variables over the span of the forecast except the one variable being examined. Everything else remains precisely the same. Using that Latin disclaimer is really all that separates economic forecasts from other forms of blind guesswork. Bluffs.  Guesses.  Fantasies.

In fact, everything else never stays the same. Everything changes. Fast. Plus, some things change faster than others. So that’s why the name is “ceteris diversibus” – with everything else different, constantly changing.  It’s about accepting and enjoying the show.

I’m just watching the changing world around me and trying to have fun with it. It’s a little like being a kid in the back seat of my parents’ car: the view is constantly changing, always going new places and seeing new things; sometimes it’s a bumpy ride; I’m not always sure where we’re going . . . and I don’t get to drive.